The Political Climate Of North America If The Confederacy Had Won The Civil War

A map of the Union states, Confederate states, border states, and territories from 1861 to 1865.

What would the political climate in North America look like today if the Confederate States of America had survived?

This is a hypothetical that historians often explore, as it would’ve resulted in two separate countries: the Union to the north and the Confederate States of America (CSA) to the south. This scenario would have only occurred if the CSA had won the American Civil War and inflicted severe damage to the Union. The CSA would have likely been incredibly conservative, while the Union would have been more progressive and very similar to the United States as it is today. The CSA held a widespread belief that slavery was an economic strength, even though it is now universally regarded as immoral and ineffective. Industrialization in the CSA would likely have been delayed a lot due to the reluctance of slaveowners to free slaves and switch to machinery, leading to the CSA falling behind the Union. In terms of economic, military, and diplomatic capacity, the CSA would likely be disadvantaged compared to the Union. 

Second, the states would likely have gained more sovereignty under the CSA government, since it was established to grant them greater autonomy and limit federal power, allowing for every state to operate under its own set of laws. Because plantation owners were already at the top of the social scale, they would have likely remained there for much longer, pushing back the emancipation process by decades. 

Both sides would see each other as a danger in the modern world because the CSA and the Union would have quite different foreign policy objectives. In order to prevent attacks from the other side, both sides would try to industrialize, militarize, and cultivate international ties, creating a sort of rivalry and scenario akin to the Cold War. Given the CSA’s geographical position and relatively inferior diplomacy and economic prosperity, it would be prudent for the CSA to focus more in Latin America rather than in Europe or Asia. This is likely what would have happened, leading to the CSA making stronger connections down south with countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico to fulfill resource demands, since a large portion of North American resources would be divided. This division would have weakened both the Union and the CSA, resulting in a drastic reduction in economic prosperity and power on the international stage for both. The United States, as it stands today, was only able to reach such a powerful position through world events like World War I. The country, as a whole, worked as a cohesive unit to supply Europe with military equipment. With divided resources and a lack of cohesion, neither the Union nor the CSA would have really benefited from World War I. In fact, it’s very probable that the Union and the CSA would have been embroiled in their own conflicts during the time World War I took place. Thus, both of the countries, especially the CSA, would have largely missed out on the opportunity to experience an economic boom from exporting military resources to foreign countries and opening new trade relationships. However, the Union’s greater diplomacy with Europe would mean that it may have been able to experience some small-scale economic growth by capitalizing on World War I.

For the most part, the Union would have a greater role in international politics involving Europe, Asia, and even Africa, while the CSA would struggle to catch up militarily and economically through industrialization. However, the CSA might have countered by increasing its political prominence in South America, perhaps by opposing the spread of communism or providing aid to South American countries during economic crises or civil wars.

In modern times, the Union would have likely made annexing the CSA one of its top priorities. The Union would be a democratic country, while the CSA would likely be a one-party system run by elites. The Union would definitely harbor a grudge against the CSA for shattering its reputation during the Civil War. Therefore, the CSA would have likely become a prime target for the Union, especially since the CSA’s trade and diplomatic relations with South American countries would give it more advantages in natural resources. 

A map of what the United States may have looked like today if the Confederacy had won, with the Union (blue) to the north and the CSA (red) to the south.

Interestingly, some of the United States’ border concerns today would not exist, since the border with Mexico would have belonged to the CSA. Assuming that Mexico still existed exactly the way it is today, the CSA would have to deal with issues such as illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and smuggling. However, the Union would still have other problems, as its primary border concern would instead have been with the CSA. Similar to the border between North Korea and South Korea, the border between the Union and the CSA might have been declared a demilitarized zone. However, the treaty required to establish such a zone would be a major concern for both countries. In addition, the North and South Korean border has remained heavily militarized despite the name, so a similar situation could have arisen between the Union and the CSA as well.

Moving beyond North America, the international political landscape would have been drastically different without the strong presence of the United States. For one, the outcome of World War I would have been significantly worse if the United States hadn’t entered the war, as would have been the case if it had been split into two separate countries. If the Confederacy had won the Civil War, it is unlikely that the Union or the CSA would have been in a position to provide significant aid to turn the tide of the war. The Allies would have likely lost, leading to a German victory or a negotiated peace treaty on German terms. The Germans coming out on top during World War I means that World War II would likely not have happened, since Germany would not have signed the Treaty of Versailles, which planted the seeds for World War II. Adding on, the League of Nations—and therefore the United Nations (UN)—might never have been established, and fascism would have spread much further.

In general, North America would have never been in a position of power on the international stage if the Confederacy had won the American Civil War. Both the Union and the CSA would have been much weaker than the modern United States, with the CSA being more conservative and the Union being more progressive. Had the Civil War resulted in two countries, the situation would be very similar to what we see between North Korea and South Korea today, where the Union, like South Korea, would be highly developed, prosperous, and diplomatic, while the CSA, like North Korea, would be backward and less advanced. However, unlike North Korea, the CSA would have been more of a flawed democracy or an oligarchy rather than a fully authoritarian state. It’s important to note that although most of these speculations are grounded in historical facts and analysis of past events, no one really knows what would have happened if the CSA had survived. In fact, we don’t even know if the CSA or the Union would have survived in their original forms for another 160 years after the Civil War, given the various internal conflicts and problems.